Covid-19 : why it is still too early to estimate the total mortality in France

“The number of deaths directly related to the epidemic cannot be accurately determined at this stage,” emphasizes France’s public health. It’s still too much for the ear.

“The number of deaths directly related to the epidemic cannot be accurately determined at this stage,” emphasizes France’s public health.

It is still too early to estimate the exact number of deaths from the Covid-19 epidemic in France, especially given the uncertainty about deaths that occurred at home, warns French Public Health on Wednesday. “The number of deaths directly related to the covid-19 epidemic cannot be accurately determined at this stage,” the health agency concluded in a study tracking deaths in France between March 2 and May 31.

in that period, 18,861 deaths in hospitals and 10 of 335 deaths in long-term care facilities and social care centers were officially recognized as related to the coronavirus, for a total of 29,186. The figure has since exceeded 30,000 victims, 30,165.

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But France’s public health emphasizes that this estimate is “probably overestimated” because some of the deaths counted in long-term care were “suspicious of Covid-19”. “In the absence of systematic PCR testing, some of the reported deaths were likely erroneously linked” to Covid-19, according to the study.

“Multiple concurrent effects” on mortality

the authors also analyzed all-cause mortality figures from the Census Bureau to estimate the “excess mortality” attributable to the epidemic during these three months. “Between March 2 and May 31, 2020, just over 175,800 deaths from all causes were estimated in the national territory. This figure exceeds 25,030” compared to the expected number of deaths, estimated from the observations of previous years, they detailed.

The problem: Estimating the expected number of deaths is also difficult to determine, the researchers caution, because “the epidemic period produced a number of concurrent effects” on mortality that are difficult to quantify.

the increase in mortality directly related to the epidemic has been aggravated by a successive increase in “delays in medical care”, “in the context of concerns about the health and economic consequences of the epidemic or the isolation of the frail and the elderly”.

But this period also translated into a decrease in mortality due to the reduction in travel and activities during the stay (traffic accidents, work accidents…) role, will allow a precise quantification of the excess mortality linked to the epidemic”, Public Health France said, noting that the collection and processing of paper death certificates “requires several months” and that “they will not be able to be analyzed before the end of 2020.”

The finding speaks to the “urgency to expand the use of electronic death certificates,” “reagents available,” urges the health care agency. This certification method “was used in early 2020 for 20% of all deaths nationally, with strong regional heterogeneity,” she says.

“Movement of viruses on the rise in the national territory”

The Covid-19 epidemic also caused 13 new hospital deaths in 24 hours in France, but the overall balance fell after the number of deaths in long-term care facilities was corrected. At the same time, “the circulation of the virus in the national territory is increasing,” which includes “increasing the number of SOS doctors, trips to the emergency room, the number of conglomerates and new hospitalizations,” according to the statement. General Directorate of Health (DGS). In 24 hours, SOS doctors carried out 413 interventions for suspected COVID-19, 4% of the total activity. The emergency services registered 215 calls for the same reason or 0.6% of the total activity.

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A total of 6,482 people were hospitalized due to the spread of COVID-19, of which 455 were in the ICU, 12 fewer than on Monday. Since May 9, 547 grouped cases (clusters) have been detected, but 339 have been closed, reports the DGS, bringing the number of homes still active as of July 21 to 208, eight of which are new since the yesterday.

Specifically, of these 208 households are still active and 66 are considered “controlled,” meaning contact tracing is ongoing and there have been no new cases seven days since the last known one, the Health Ministry said.

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On the occasion of the holidays, “travel, events, and family or friends gatherings are factors that can favor recovery from the epidemic,” according to the DGS. In Mayenne, the epidemiological situation is still subject to increased surveillance due to the high frequency and rate of positive tests. In Guyana, the peak of the epidemic appears to have passed, but the region is still classified as highly vulnerable.

Update date: July 22, 2020, 01:58

Categories: Optical Illusion
Source: newstars.edu.vn

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