After the lost Brexit vote – what happens now?

Britain’s House of Commons rejected a Brexit deal with the EU on Tuesday – now a chaotic exit threatens. On March 29, it finally closes. Th

Britain’s House of Commons rejected a Brexit deal with the EU on Tuesday – now a chaotic exit threatens.

On March 29, it finally closes. Then Britain will leave the European Union. Either with or without an agreement. As of Tuesday, January 15, the path to an orderly Brexit has become even more difficult: MPs voted against the May government’s deal with the EU-negotiated Agreement. How can it continue?

Scenario 1: parliamentarians say to vote “No” in case of Brexit

After a “no” vote for Brexit, two scenarios are conceivable. In case of a “hard Brexit” and a sudden break with the economic chaos of the EU. Leaving the EU’s single market and customs union could see the British pound crash, and exports would also fall.

As for Brits, citizens live as non-EU on the mainland, and the job would be to apply for residence and work permits.

Since a “hard Brexit” would restrict Northern Ireland from EU foreigners, the return of border controls would be necessary. Some fear a revival of the old conflict and economic problems.

preparations for a “hard Brexit” have begun.

As the current developments surrounding the Brexit vote are likely to lead to a “hard Brexit”, examples are some of the more urgent cases. In the port city of Dover, the British government conducted a truck exercise to prevent traffic jams at the necessary border controls.

in addition, 3,500 soldiers should be mobilized, who will be ready for any danger. Announced by British Defense Minister Gavin Williamson.

Scenario 2: The House of Commons says it is still Yes in a further vote

Theresa May also lost the first vote. Conceivably, another vote in the lower house on the draft Treaty – then under the sword of Damocles of a hard Brexit as well as renegotiations with the EU and, consequently, only a further vote on a slightly changed essence is a sign. The latter, however, seems unlikely. High representatives of the EU have repeatedly refused deeper negotiations.

one way or another: Parliament says “Yes”, there is a “soft Brexit” and Brexit – the agreement applies. It foresees a transition phase until the end of 2020. Theresa May needs 320 votes to ratify the agreement.

In this transition phase, you can close UK trade deals that happen after the deadline. The UK remains in the EU’s internal market and customs union. EU rules continue to apply, even if the British are not allowed to have a say in Brussels. Travel restrictions, as well as customs controls, do not enter the transitional phase.

Depending on the progress of the negotiations, there is a possibility of a one-time extension of the transitional period until the end of 2022.

scenario 3: withdrawal from Brexit is still possible

rejected the agreement, there is another possible scenario. Roughly, this means: Britain can unilaterally cancel Brexit. The judges of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled in mid-December 2018 that the British can withdraw from Brexit without the consent of other EU countries. Condition by the previous “democratic process”, on the second referendum. In addition, the EU Council must be notified in writing of the withdrawal from the exit.

in addition to “soft” and “hard Brexit”, there is also the theoretical possibility of “No Brexit”.

Parliament agreed at the Brexit vote for the Agreement with the EU, there is a “soft Brexit” with a transition phase. On the day of the house of rejection, it threatens to leave Chaos. These are possible scenarios:

Brexit vote in News-Ticker: “The Times” has long been warning Great Britain about chaos

This is how the transition looks, according to the Brexit Agreement of

at the end of 2020, but no later than the end of 2022, Already – and time for negotiations for the UK. Then the exit agreement remains in full force. The aim is for the UK to be in free trade with the EU, but part of the European internal market.

Britons living on the European mainland must remain the same otherwise. Until the end of the transition period, the UK continues to meet its financial obligations to the EU.

Northern Ireland and the “Backstop” made negotiations difficult

The biggest and sharpest point of contention in the agreement is the issue of Northern Ireland, which now depends on the outcome of the Brexit vote. Since the end of the civil war in Northern Ireland in 1998, the invisible border between British Northern Ireland and the independent Republic of Ireland has been open. Economically, the two countries are closely linked.

The border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and Ireland, which is still a member of the EU, remains open. Failing in the UK and the EU, but closing joint trade deals, acts as an emergency solution to the so-called “Backstop”. In order for Great Britain to remain in the European customs union, Northern Ireland remains part of the European single market. Controls on the Irish-Northern Irish border would be prevented, the risk of rekindling the conflict in Northern Ireland would be minimized.

Against “Backstop”. there is also resistance. Everything is progressing through the Northern Irish party, the DUP, which opposes different treatment of Northern Ireland until it leaves the EU. The bottom line: Theresa May will rely on the DUP vote to form a minority government with the help of you and your Conservatives.

Also, in the case of Gibraltar, which Spain claims, an agreement on a solution. Spaniards can continue to work without problems in Gibraltar. When making decisions of Gibraltar, related to, in the future, Spain, consent should be obtained.

+ opponents and supporters of the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU held in the days before the Brexit vote. © Reuters / Alastair Grant