Climate : it would take decades before we see lower temperatures

According to the researchers, the impact of ambitious policies against greenhouse gas emissions may not be seen before mid-century. F

According to the researchers, the impact of ambitious policies against greenhouse gas emissions may not be seen before mid-century.

The fight against climate change will be long. Even if the world slashes greenhouse gas emissions, the impact on global warming might not be seen before mid-century, say researchers concerned about a boomerang reaction to measures that appear to be mistakenly ineffective.

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Due to human activities, the planet has already gained at least +1 °C since pre-industrial times, increasing climatic disasters. To combat climate disruption that is known to get worse with every additional half degree, signatories to the 2015 Paris Agreement have pledged to cut their emissions to limit warming to +2°C or even +1.5°C.

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For now, these obligations of the Member are not necessary. Even if they did, “these efforts may be visible by mid-century, but probably not before,” write the authors of a study published Tuesday in Nature Communications.

the signs are not visible before 2035

“Reducing emissions is necessary, it is effective from day one, but it will take time before we can measure that effect with certainty,” says Bjorn Samset of the Cicero Norwegian climate research center in a press release. The climate system in particular is naturally characterized by high inertial forces and high variability from year to year.

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“Human-caused climate change can be likened to a container ship being thrown at full speed into big waves. If you want to slow the ship down, you can put it in reverse, but it will take time before you can.” I notice that he has slowed down, “says the climatologist.

Thus, a significant reduction in emissions will immediately affect CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, but not an increase in temperatures, which are responsible for the propagation of extreme weather events. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, the first signs of the impact of warming could be invisible until at least 2035, according to the researchers.

“We have prepared problems for our future”

That’s why we ask for your patience! they claim, fearing that this delay will cause a boomerang effect. This reality “must be clearly explained to decision makers and the public, if we are to avoid a backlash against emissions mitigation policies that would be deemed ineffective,” the study insists. “This does not mean that the reduction (of emissions) has no effect. It simply means that we have to be patient,” insisted Bjorn Samset.

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“We have problems in store for our future. But that’s no reason not to limit the damage now,” said Grant Allen, a researcher at the University of Manchester, who was not involved in the study. Although at the same time it will be necessary to adapt to the consequences already foreseen, he pointed out.

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Several other scientists praised the new study, but Piers Forster, a climatologist at the University of Leeds, disputed its conclusions, calling it “a bleak and unhelpful view of our impact on climate in the coming decades.” “Based on our own work, the company can have a significant impact in reducing the planet’s temperature in the next 15 to 20 years thanks to strong efforts to reduce emissions,” he insisted.

Date updated: July 9, 2020, 00:58

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Source: newstars.edu.vn