Some scientists do not hesitate to assert that the epidemic is behind us, the health authorities remain, they, still cautious. Réanimations, death, contaminati
Some scientists do not hesitate to assert that the epidemic is behind us, the health authorities remain, they, still cautious.
Réanimations, death, contamination,… Almost 15 days after the déconfinement, these indicators are rather positive. The authorities consider that it is too early to draw conclusions, but some scientists do not hesitate to say that the epidemic of Covid-19 is behind us, with the possibility that a part of the population is immune.
downward Trend
First crucial indicator, of the admissions in icu. Their “daily number (…) is always in decline since the 8th of April,” said health care agency public Health France in its latest bulletin on Thursday. Currently, approximately 1,700 patients are hospitalized as a csr for a severe form of Covid-19, according to the latest figures from the ministry of Health. They were 2.200 one week before, and 7.148 April 8; the highest total ever reached.
similarly, the deaths are in steady decline. Between Thursday and Friday, 74 patients Covid-19 died in the hospital (not counting the deaths in the long-term care facilities and institutions for the disabled). It is very far from the balance sheets daily at the beginning of April when there were sometimes over 600 deaths alone in the hospital.
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In total, more than 28,000 people have died in connection with the Covid-19. Everywhere in France, this epidemic is accompanied by an excess of mortality, underscores public Health France. This has been particularly marked in the regions Grand est and Ile-de-France”, and during the period from 16 march to 26 April, with a peak during the week of 30 march to 5 April. This excess mortality “tends to return to normal levels”, according to the health agency. It is also observed a decrease of passages to the urgencies for Covid-19, which “translates to a decrease of new infection”.
Prudence of the authorities
According to the health authorities, however, it is premature to rejoice. “All we can say is that today, there is no alert signal but it is too soon to draw this observation, that all will go well,” says Daniel Lévy-Bruhl, head of unit of respiratory infections of public Health, France. “There was a gap between what we are measuring today and what it is: what we are measuring today, it is still the benefits of containment,” he continued.
Mechanically, the lifting of the confinement since may 11, must necessarily lead to an increase in the number of infections since contacts between people are increasing, warn the authorities. “The question, it is to maintain this increase within the limits of what is acceptable,” says Dr. Lévy-Bruhl.
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the fear of The government is a return to the scenario before the containment, with an explosion in the number of cases that would saturate the health system. To avoid this, it is based on a device combining the tests, the identification of individuals in contact with a positive case (or “contact tracing”), and isolation of the sick.
For the time being, public Health, France has identified 46 households of the infection (or “clusters”) across the territory. For the most part, the first cases date back to before the lifting of the containment. “The optimistic view is that the identification of a cluster is good news because it confirms the ability of the device to identify and break the chains of transmission,” says Dr. Levy-Bruh. “The risk of a second wave exists, it belongs to us all collectively to make that it did not happen”, he adds.
For some, it is nearly the end
A countdown of the dominant discourse, some of the scientists in the minority, but increasingly many believe that the epidemic is nearing its end. “Possibly a few sporadic cases will appear here or there (but) the epidemic is coming to an end,” assured the controversial Pr Didier Raoult in a video put online on the 12 may.
A point of view defended by others, according to which the epidemic has affected all those she could touch. Their central argument : it is wrong to consider that the entire population is a target. “A non-negligible part of the population may not be sensitive to the coronavirus, because of the antibodies non-specific to the virus can stop it,” says the epidemiologist, Laurent Toubiana.
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this is A view shared by professor Yonathan Freund, an emergency physician at the parisian hospital la Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital. He was struck by the drastic decrease in the number of contaminations among his colleagues relative to the beginning of the epidemic. “In the er and in the hospital, it is particularly exposed. If the virus was circulating as much as before and that we were all likely to be affected, it would have contaminated between us or we would have been sick. However, a large majority of doctors have not been affected at all. This is pure speculation but it could mean that people have a natural immunity or acquired”, avance-t-il.
This hypothesis, which remains to be verified, has been raised by us researchers in the journal Cell : according to them, 40% to 60% of the population could be immunized against the Covid-19 without even having been exposed. In this case, the new coronavirus that there would be no more a lot of people to infect.
when will answers ?
Since the lifting of the confinement, the government repeats that it will have to wait at least two weeks to start to see things more clearly. “Maybe next week we’ll have the elements,” says Dr. Lévy-Bruhl. The “sword of Damocles” of a “resumption of the dynamic of the epidemic” is still present, which could even result, “in a worst-case scenario”, to “a need to reconfiner”, he warns.
This is why it considers “premature to base a hope on cross-immunity”, hypothesis “far from unanimous and far from being supported”. According to him, “you don’t get to the population the message that all is well because we realized that everyone was protected.”
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“I understand that it is very chilly to the idea of a new prophecy, because everybody is so planted at the start and I the first”, argues for its part, the Pr Freund. “It must stop infantiliser all the world,” he says. “If ever I’m wrong and that there is a new circulation of the virus, well we will see and we will take measures.”
Date Of Update: 23 May 2020, 04:59
Categories: Optical Illusion
Source: newstars.edu.vn