For this heat wave that experienced much of Siberia from January to June, scientists have rarely been so sure of the influence of man. “still
For this heat wave that experienced much of Siberia from January to June, scientists have rarely been so sure of the influence of man.
“We still have some time to stabilize the climate at the levels predicted by the Paris Agreement,” warn researchers from World Weather Attribution. Temperatures 5°C above normal since January, peaking at 38°C behind the Arctic Circle… The heat that hit Siberia would have “almost” no chance of happening without climate change, they believe. And it is urgent to act.
The World Weather Attribution, which brings together experts from various research institutes, has specialized in analyzing the possible link between extremely precise weather and warming, calculating in a very short time the probability that it will occur even without the climate change associated with the Emissions of greenhouse gases. . And here, due to this heat wave that a large part of Siberia experienced from January to June, conducive to the outbreak of fires, scientists have rarely been so sure of human influence.
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“It was at least 600 times more likely that the regional temperature recorded in the six-month period from January to June 2020 was due to the influence of human-caused climate change,” said Andrew Ciavarella, lead author of the study, who was not published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. read, but uses a validated method.
“It would be almost impossible without human influence,” insisted a scientist from the Met Office, UK. “These results are among the study’s most impressive award-winning products,” said Sarah Kew of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KMNI).
More frequent, more intense risks
Signatories to the Paris Agreement committed in 2015 to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to limit warming to +2°C, or even +1.5°C compared to pre-industrial times. But to reach the ideal goal, it will be necessary to reduce CO2 emissions by 7.6% per year every year between 2020 and 2030.
Without the warming, the Siberian episode of the past six months, in which temperatures exceeded the normal season by more than 5°C on average, would have occurred only once in 80,000 years. Even with current climate change and the Arctic warming much faster than the rest of the planet, this prolonged heat episode is “exceptional”, with the possibility of returning every 130 years.
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“But without rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, they are likely to become more frequent by the end of the century,” warned Sarah, Kew. More often, but also more intensely. Also, the heat wave would have been at least 2°C cooler if it had happened in 1900 instead of today. “And it’s probably 3°C, which is three times faster than global warming,” Andrew Ciavarella said. And that warming could further increase by 0.5 to 5°C over the next 30 years.
The researchers are unsure of their results of around 38°C, recorded on June 20 in the city of Verkhoïansk, a record outside the Arctic Circle that has yet to be confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization.
forest fires
Persistent, unofficial heat, coupled with sub-par soil, provides ideal conditions for the spread of fires ravaging Siberia’s vast forests. According to the European Corpernicus climate change service, these fires released 59 megatons of CO2 into the atmosphere in June, up from 53 megatons in June 2019, an already “very unusual” year.
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“We are continuing to investigate the ways in which these fires, which have burned thousands of hectares of land, can affect the climate by injecting smoke and ash into the atmosphere,” said scientist Olga Zolina from the Institute of Environmental Geosciences in Grenoble. .
Arctic warming also poses a serious risk to permafrost. This permafrost contains enormous amounts of CO2 and methane, greenhouse gases that could be released in the event of a major thaw and exacerbate warming.
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For now, this melting is mainly due to ground collapse and subsidence. He was accused of being the cause, at the end of May, of an unprecedented leak of hydrocarbons from the thermal power plant, which were dumped into the rivers of the Russian Arctic.
Update Date: Jul 16, 2020, 2:58 PM
Categories: Optical Illusion
Source: newstars.edu.vn